USF women’s basketball may be on the cusp of its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2023. 

Monday’s updated Bracketology – ESPN’s tournament predictor – featured USF as one the “First Four Out.” 

The “First Four Out” are not included in the NCAA tournament yet, but are typically the four highest seeds included in the National Invitational Tournament– the second highest postseason tournament. 

But with USF riding a seven-game winning streak, the Bulls could sneak their way into March Madness if they continue their dominant play.  

The Bulls (18-8, 11-2 AAC) have gone on a successful conference run after a tough start to the season. 

USF’s non-conference slate was the 14th hardest in the nation – facing five AP-ranked opponents. The Bulls played both UConn and South Carolina, who both made appearances in last season’s Final Four, with the Gamecocks eventually winning the title.  

Related: USF women’s basketball dominates UTSA: ‘No way we could lose’

But USF kicked it into gear in conference play, winning 11 of its 13 American Athletic Conference (AAC) matchups, including a double-digit victory over UTSA – the top team in the AAC.

What determines who’s selected for March Madness?

Teams selected to the NCAA tournament are determined by a variety of factors. A team’s record is important, but the quality of those wins and losses is arguably more crucial. 

The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is the litmus test the selection committee uses when seeding the 68 teams in the tournament. 

The NET considers the strength of the opponent, game location and team efficiency, among other things. 

It also breaks down games into quadrants based on the opponent’s NET ranking and game location. 

Related: USF’s Sammie Puisis making waves in final season as a Bull

Quadrant 1 teams are some of the highest ranked NET teams in the country, while Quadrant 4 are some of the lowest. A Quadrant 1 win is highly valued by the selection committee. 

USF currently has a NET ranking of 68th out of 362 – including a 1-5 record in Quadrant 1 games. 

That win came against No. 11 Duke – the first AP-ranked victory for the Bulls since 2022. 

The Bulls have excelled in Quadrant 3 and 4 games, compiling a 17-2 record.

While USF fared poorly against these Quadrant 1 teams, those teams were some of the strongest in the country. 

The lone ranked win against Duke will likely be very important when the committee determines the final bracket.  

How can the Bulls make the tournament?

Simply, USF can earn an automatic bid if they win the AAC tournament next month. 

The Bulls have only done that one time – in 2022. They lost to Miami in the first round of the NCAA tournament that year. 

USF is second in the conference, only trailing UTSA. If the Bulls can’t sweep the conference tournament, they will have to rely on their NET ranking and final record to secure an at-large bid. 

The Bulls have four games remaining on their regular season schedule. The highest NET ranked team they will play is Tulsa, who currently sits at No. 143. The Golden Hurricanes carry a pedestrian 12-13 record. 

An AAC Tournament championship will be the likely path to the Bulls’ tournament chances as they sit on the outside looking in. 

Women’s basketball will play Charlotte on the road at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday. It will be broadcast on ESPN+ and Bulls Unlimited.